Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.008271 0.009317 0.010460 0.011808 0.013355 0.015080 0.017155
2024-12-29 0.006552 0.007951 0.009617 0.011758 0.014454 0.017762 0.022161
2025-01-05 0.005868 0.007486 0.009526 0.012311 0.016056 0.020971 0.028005
2025-01-12 0.005026 0.006660 0.008810 0.011886 0.016237 0.022263 0.031409
2025-01-19 0.004420 0.006046 0.008267 0.011573 0.016458 0.023552 0.034896
2025-01-26 0.004028 0.005671 0.007990 0.011572 0.017082 0.025441 0.039486
2025-02-02 0.003847 0.005568 0.008078 0.012092 0.018519 0.028705 0.046684
2025-02-09 0.003545 0.005252 0.007811 0.012029 0.019017 0.030518 0.051720
2025-02-16 0.003329 0.005042 0.007677 0.012149 0.019809 0.032887 0.058051
2025-02-23 0.003076 0.004750 0.007385 0.011974 0.020067 0.034352 0.062921
2025-03-02 0.002919 0.004597 0.007299 0.012128 0.020904 0.036929 0.070290
2025-03-09 0.002739 0.004389 0.007102 0.012066 0.021336 0.038799 0.076527
2025-03-16 0.002488 0.004051 0.006669 0.011566 0.020948 0.039144 0.079860
2025-03-23 0.002334 0.003867 0.006490 0.011515 0.021418 0.041259 0.087448
2025-03-30 0.002286 0.003863 0.006624 0.012056 0.023108 0.046086 0.102056
2025-04-06 0.002104 0.003606 0.006279 0.011641 0.022807 0.046662 0.106751
2025-04-13 0.001955 0.003395 0.006003 0.011335 0.022695 0.047627 0.112580
2025-04-20 0.001859 0.003276 0.005886 0.011334 0.023231 0.050121 0.122800
2025-04-27 0.001832 0.003284 0.006011 0.011842 0.024947 0.055602 0.142148
2025-05-04 0.001741 0.003161 0.005873 0.011780 0.025365 0.058029 0.153558
2025-05-11 0.001676 0.003085 0.005821 0.011898 0.026213 0.061647 0.169232
2025-05-18 0.001587 0.002954 0.005646 0.011727 0.026348 0.063455 0.179840
2025-05-25 0.001535 0.002896 0.005616 0.011877 0.027286 0.067520 0.198508